A guest post by Lauren Fisher, who specialises in online PR and social media at Simply Zesty – and can be found on Twitter at @laurenfisher.
As we look forward to a brand new year, I’m sure the burning question on everyone’s lips is – what’s going to happen to microblogging in 2010? In a year that saw Ashton Kutcher reach 1 million followers on Twitter and MSN launch their own microblogging service (and MSN China clone Plurk – Dan), the next year certainly has a lot to live up to. Here, I offer a few of my own predictions for microblogging in 2010, with Dan’s thoughts below.

Increased use in organisations

I’m talking here about internal use of microblogging, as a way for colleagues to collaborate and communicate with each other. We’ve seen Google Wave emerge as a tool for professional, organisational use and I think this is the path that microblogging will take in 2010. I’ve already written on here about my thoughts on Yammer (which I still stand by) and I think we will see microblogging tools play a bigger role in internal corporate communications, as an easy and efficient way to communicate with each other. The benefits of realtime will be no more paramount than for businesses.

Dan: Totally agree, although I’m not sure I’d pick Yammer out as the key product in this area – the move is towards integrating microblogging as part of a collaborative and project management toolset – e.g. Salesforce Chatter. The novelty of an ‘internal Twitter’ is fine, but doesn’t convert those who don’t like Twitter, or those happy to DM via Twitter already. Integrated tools give reasons for people to get involved.

Twitter Declining

I won’t be the first, or last, person to say this but I think Twitter may have reached its height of popularity and I think numbers will start to dwindle, albeit slowly. The love affair with Twitter has been exciting, but it might just be over. The avalanche of spam accounts has a part to play here, but I think that when Twitter reaches its highest point of saturation, is conversely when you start to lose value in the site. It has become incredibly noisy and I am beginning to question the real use of it.

Dan: I agree to some extent. I think some of the expansion already has been down to a huge number of spam accounts, and it’s something Twitter has started to tackle, but will always be a huge problem. The lesson here is to learn from the most popular 3rd party apps – Tweetdeck and Seesmic for example, which allow far better filtering than Twitter itself. The noise levels don’t bother me too much because I’m fairly selective about who I follow (Hard to believe when I’m following almost 2k people!)

Microblogging as customer service

I think that more and more companies will embrace microblogging in 2010, beyond the extent we’re seeing now. Businesses will realise the potential of microblogging as a customer service platform though, rather than a place for sexy social media campaigns. I don’t think there will be many more hashtag competitions, we’ve had pretty much every variation of these! I hope that more companies will realise the value of microblogging to source and, most importantly, solve issues for customers. As consumers, we are expecting everything to be solved in real-time and this is what we’ll expect businesses to cater to. The power of crowdsourcing will also be recognised more and we’ll see more companies opening up product development to the masses.

Dan: Totally agree that almost every company should be using Twitter as an integral part of overall improvements to customer service. I expect to reach any tech company via Twitter, and those that do have an active role tend to respond quickly and get my repeat business!

No to video microblogging

It’s not an area that’s really taken off and I don’t think 2010 will be the year for video microblogging. Some sites have made a good attempt, such as Vidly, but once the initial shine wears off the uptake is slow. I simply don’t think that microblogging lends itself to video. A quick text update is one thing : shooting, uploading and tagging a short video is another. We’re still not as comfortable in front of the camera as we are in front of the keyboard and I don’t think this will change any time soon.

Dan: Damn it – this is an area that comes back to haunt me after I made a prediction on video at a conference that Seesmic’s original video blogging platform would take off in 2009. And I was wrong for exactly the reasons above. I’d say for the over 20s, audio blogging such as Audioboo is more accessible. However, I think there’s a huge group of teenagers who are very accustomed to broadcasting themselves on Justin.tv and Ustream. If someone taps into that market and can lure them away from sites which are heavily integrating with Facebook, Twitter etc, then we may see video microblogging take off in a couple of years. It’s also likely to be primarily mobile, and the odds are people will still video other people rather than themselves…

Location –based microblogging

If Twitter is to continue growing in 2010, I think the answer could be in location-based services. As mobile internet usage rapidly increases, we’re all going to be using location services more. If we can make real connections on Twitter with those that are physically close to us, as a more integrated part of the whole microblogging experience, this could prove incredibly popular. Integrating tweets at real-world events such as concerts and sport events will also become more popular, bringing people physically together.

Dan: Totally. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more integration between location, microblogging and special offers, but that’s definitely going to arrive this year – look at mobile social location games like Foursquare, or Google stepping up their location-based efforts. And events are a huge influence on bringing people together on Twitter – the FA Cup, the Superbowl, Eurovision etc as examples…

Integration with sites

As more people will be moving away from Twitter itself, I think microblogging will play a bigger part in existing sites. The new redesign of LinkedIn sees the now familiar stream of status updates with more prominence and I think this is probably the way many sites will go, including email services, encouraging even further interaction between people through short updates. As we become increasingly productive online in 2010, we’ll expect the microblogging functionality to feature more heavily in sites we’re already visiting, than having to go to a separate site.

Dan: Twitter, Facebook and Google are the three services that you should expect to seemlessly be integrated into almost every site you visit in the next 6 months. Each one is becoming very close to the single unified ID many people have talked about…

Microblogging in 2010 – what do you think?

Video microblogging 12seconds has released 12mail, to join the existing 12cast. Neither requires you to have an existing account, and whereas the earlier application would send videos to Twitter, the new app lets you send videos directly to your friends, which has far more potential for communication.

If you don’t have a 3GS you can send a picture and record an audio message on top of that – and either way, it will be direct messaged to all recipients on Twitter, or strangely posted to a user’s wall on Facebook.

The interesting thing is that I tipped the likes of Seesmic and 12Seconds as video microblogging which would grow hugely this year, but that hasn’t really happened. And the reason is I forgot to think about users more than technology – although there are some great people using video microblogging (for example @Documentally), most people are too self-conscious to be constantly updating to camera at the moment (Although the teen users of Ustream and Justin.tv etc might well disagree).

That’s why I love the fact this operates as more of a messaging service between people that know each other – the familiarity allows me to record a quick message when I don’t want to type or I want to share something visual, without worrying that the entire world will see my bad hair day.

Despite the appearance of this being a blog solely dedicated to Twitter, the intention has always been to cover microblogging as a whole.

To me, microblogging means every short form publishing format – so the 140/160 character text sites such as Plurk, Identi.ca, etc, and also the video formats such as Seesmic, 12 seconds etc.

But the third content type hasn’t really been covered – audio.

Obviously Audioboo is getting a lot of press at the moment, and quite rightly, due to the fact their iPhone app is a real USP. Converting audio pre-transfer means higher quality for starters – which matters a lot of broadcasters.

Then there are alternatives, such as Phonevite and ipadio, or even the voice-to-text magic of Spinvox.

So should I be ramping up the coverage of the Twitter alternatives? Should there be more coverage of microvideo apps? Or does the sound of more audio interest you?

Twitter users have long been able to share images via Twitpic, but video generally relied on using a URL shortening service to link to the content in question.

New service Tweetube aims to solve this problem, for Youtube videos at least.

You can either use the url of the video/page, or keyword search from the main Tweetube page.  Edit the message as your wish, and then submit using your Twitter username and password.

If you then visit Tweetube and log in, you can view all shared videos, with the time submitted, and the total cumulative visits.  It also has a Public Timeline of all videos submitted via the service, which is quite handy for seeing what is being shared, and a Popular Videos stream (which doesn’t include publicly-viewable figures sadly).

The ability to post and track visits is something that could be accomplished fairly easily via a URL shortening service – but the Public Timeline is definitely interesting as a method of identifying popular content, what is going viral, and people who might be interested in similar content etc.

In some ways, it’s almost a very lightweight Blip.fm for video, with the sole weakness that you have to post a public Tweet for it to register your video – whereas Blip exists seperately, so you can choose whether or not you need to share each song you listen to.

Definitely a service worth using if you’ve got an interest in producing or sharing video.

Tweetube Public Timeline

A few things have caught my eye over the last couple of days, so here’s a bit of a micro-update:

Matt Balara writes about an interesting case of being followed on Twitter, and highlights some etiquette issues and changes in how people are interacting in the modern world.

Seesmic has a new Nokia N95 client which not only allows you to upload and view videos from the service on your phone, but also reply to friends videos, build a threaded conversation and post to Twitter with a video link. More details and a video demo at Loic Le Meur’s blog.

The Twitter Song is still gaining fame for songwriter Ben Walker, and over 200,000 views on Youtube so far. Plus appearances on BBC Radio 5 and National Radio New Zealand.

Techcrunch takes a look at the very interesting Twittermoms.com. It’s not a mommy Twitter clone, but a Ning based group for mothers who already use Twitter. It underlines why many people think Twitter should introduce groups, like new enterprise blogging tool Present.ly.

And finally, you can enhance your Tweets and save characters with Twitterkeys.

So far, much of the focus on microblogging has been on text, with the one major exception of Seesmic. But using Seesmic as a producer requires a certain amount of effort. It also lends itself to video blog type discussions.

Hence interest around the private alpha launch of 12 Seconds, limiting video uploads in the same manner as Twitter and Plurk et al limit the amount of text.

Updates are by webcam or mobile phone, and there’s no scientific reasoning disclosed behind the 12 second limit, although apparently “Our patent pending Electro-Tear-Duct Prongers have determined that exactly 12 seconds of video is the ideal amount of time to keep anything interesting.”

What is also quite interesting is that the people behind 12 Seconds are open about: “The more we can get 12seconds off of the 12seconds.tv site the better. We are building a platform for video status. We want these clips to be anywhere you are, or at least anywhere you want them to be.” So widgets are already available for Myspace and blogs, and more distribution is doubtless on the way…

It’s worth taking a look to see how much information can be conveyed in 12 seconds via video. My only question about the service is that it successfully replicates the upload portion of microblogging – but are there mechanisms for replying to people, and forming groups? Those are the things that have driven Twitter, Friendfeed and all the famous social networks. If I see 12 seconds that are worthy of praise, comment or argument, I want to be able to respond directly via the service – not have to track people down by alternative means.

Take a look at the site, and share your thoughts below…